Angle Fantasy Basketball

This article is inspired by the book The Art of Strategy by Avinash K. Dixit & Barry J. Nalebuff. Let’s face the fact. Almost everyone in the fantasy basketball community enjoys the thrill of trade negotiations and, more so, receiving the mobile notification that your trade offer was accepted. Let’s step back and ask ourselves, “How do we get to that point?” 

While reading this book, I came across different strategies and insights that could be useful to the fantasy basketball community. The most notable strategy I found in trade negotiations is to try and understand the concept of game theory. You may or may not be familiar with the idea; however, you probably utilize game theory daily. Game theory incorporates human psychology and personal biases when dealing with others. Game theory is largely translatable in fantasy basketball because everyone has their favorite players, team needs, and unique visions. 

Game theory, in quote, “is the art of outdoing an adversary, knowing the adversary is trying to do the same to you. It is the art of interpreting and revealing information. It is the art of putting yourself in others’ shoes to predict and influence what they will do”. Now, I will break this definition down in the context of a fantasy basketball dynasty league based on a trade negotiation I successfully executed just this past week. 

The Case Study

Context: 

• 9 category 30 team salary dynasty league. 
• Start 6: G, G, F, F, C, Flex
• My team’s league standing is 5/30. 
• My Trade partner’s standing is 12/30.
• Salary Cap: $165,294,000

My Goal: Reobtain my 2025 1st-round pick. 

My roster at the time of the negotiation: Jalen Green, Dennis Schroder, Jordan Clarkson, Paolo Banchero, Isaiah Jackson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, Jordan Hawkins, Kyle Anderson, Mo Wagner, Zach Collins, Sam Merrill, Andre Drummond, and Al Horford.  

Trade partner’s roster at the time of the negotiation: Tim Hardaway Jr., Marcus Smart, Josh Hart, Jalen Williams, Nikola Jokic, Troy Brown, Christian Braun, Spencer Dinwiddie, Haywood Highsmith, Herb Jones, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jae Crowder, and Troy Brown. 

Final Trade: 

Sent – Andre Drummond & Al Horford

Received – My 2025 1st round pick & Troy Brown

1. Is the art of outdoing an adversary, knowing the adversary is trying to do the same to you.

• This breakdown is simple. The ultimate goal of a trade is to extract the maximum value on your receiving end while also receiving the most potential upside that goes in your favor. The dilemma is your trade partner is trying to do the same to you. Every trade has a winner or loser. 

2. Is the art of interpreting and revealing information. 

• On paper, I’m a competitive team with a shot at the title as a top 5 seed. Many young pieces comprise my core, mixed with veterans such as Andre Drummond, Al Horford, Kyle Anderson, Jordan Clarkson, and Dennis Schroder. 
• However, I identify this as a great sell-high opportunity on Andre Drummond’s hot streak (with Vucevic out indefinitely at the time) to get back my 2025 1st round pick to open up the direction of my team. 
• I reveal that my trade partner is 3 games out of the top 10, and by adding Andre Drummond and Al Horford (a solid and budget-friendly rotational piece in a 30-team salary league), he could easily break into the top 10. 
• I won’t reveal that I plan to restructure my team and offload my veterans in the upcoming off-season. Also, next year would be my last year to stash Wembenyama in my minors for an edge in the tank race for Cooper Flagg (the consensus #1 pick in 2025). 

3. It is the art of putting yourself in others’ shoes to predict and influence what they will do. 

• Next, I put myself in my adversary’s shoes. He has 1 active center on his roster, albeit a game-changing one in Nikola Jokic. 
• I communicate the message that he’s actively starting 1 center that plays 3 to 4 games a week in a start 6 league. The other 3-4 days a week are left empty, with no available center for him to accumulate stats. 
• It’s an excellent case to sell. Adding Drummond with Vucevic having no timetable to return and Al Horford, who plays meaningful minutes on a thin Celtic’s roster, would provide much-needed center depth for my trade partner, and he knows that. 
• I try to put myself in my trade partner’s shoes. He believes my 2025 pick would be a high 20s pick, similar to this season and last season, where I placed 2nd, given my track record in the league. 
• I predict he would deeply consider the offer of Drummond and Horford for my 2025 1st round pick because of the range of factors mentioned above. 
• After putting myself in my partner’s shoes and discussing the mutual benefits of the trade, we agreed and successfully executed the trade. 

This trade is an example of a low-risk and high-reward transaction that opened up my team’s future longevity in a dynasty league. I shed aging veterans during a sell-high window, where Drummond and Horford would typically net a 2nd round pick each. The prize in the 2025 draft is excellent, and having the chance at a Paolo, Wemby, Giannis, and Cooper Flagg core truly inspired this trade negotiation. I hope this article can be used as a learning resource for all your upcoming trade negotiations and endeavors.