Angle Fantasy Basketball

The 2023 – 2024 season has not gone according to plan for the Memphis Grizzlies. The team that finished as the 2nd seed in the West last season is now looking towards picking in the top 7 of the 2024 NBA draft as they go through a retool this season. Sure, the team knew they had to deal with their star player Ja Morant missing the first 25 games of the season due to suspension. However, the plan was always to win before and after his return. The team was not expecting to deal with a myriad of injuries and poor performance to ultimately lead to the decision of tanking for a good draft pick the rest of the way. 

Who can blame them for this decision? The West is too tough to sneak into the play-in with a diminished roster. So why not retool this year with a lottery pick that can help you win more games next year? It worked for the Spurs the year after they drafted Tim Duncan. These picks in the top 7 are expected to play heavy minutes as opposed to being stashed in the G League to develop like those picked later in the draft. 

The Grizzlies really nailing this draft pick can go a long way towards returning them to serious contender status once again next season. Before examining the best fit for the 2024 draft class we first need to take a look at the current members of the Grizzlies roster:

Stars & Starters

These are the star players of the Grizzlies that carry much of the scoring burden or anchor the defense: 

• Ja Morant – PG, 6’2
• Desmond Bane – SG/SF, 6’5
• Jaren Jackson Jr. – PF/C, 6’10

These members of the Grizzlies will likely be back in the fold next season and prominently feature for the team in their respective role:

• Marcus Smart – PG/SG, 6’3
• Steven Adams – C, 6’11

Analysis: Of the players in this section, the glaringly obvious fact is the Grizzlies starting lineup is missing a true wing sized player! The next tallest player on the floor behind Adams and Jackson is Desmond Bane. The Grizzlies have tried to address this via the draft but so far have yet to produce a viable wing to provide size and shooting for this rotation. 

Recent Draft Picks

Soon I will cover what I believe should be the rotation of players the Grizzlies have off the bench on a nightly basis. First I wanted to cover some of the recent draft picks the Grizzlies have made to try and address their wing issue. Before I do so, I must point out that the Grizzlies tend to make a ton of draft night trades. Many of their recent rookie picks were originally owned by another team before being traded to Memphis to then make their selection:

• Xavier Tillman – PF/C, 6’8 – 35th overall 2020. Memphis did a draft night trade of Robert Woodard and some 2nds that did not amount to anything. Good Move. 
• Ziaire Williams – SF, 6’9 – 10th overall 2021. Memphis traded out of pick 17 (Trey Murphy) for pick 10 in the Valanciunas/Adams swap with New Orleans!
• Santi Aldama – PF/C, 6’11 – 30th overall 2021. Memphis traded Jared Butler, a 2022 2nd (Jabari Walker) and a 2026 2nd for pick 30 on draft night. 
• Jake LaRavia – PF, 6’8 – 19th overall 2022. Again on draft night. Arrived with a 2023 2nd round pick (GG Jackson) but Grizzlies traded out of their 2 owned picks which became Walker Kessler and TyTy Washington. 
• Kennedy Chandler – PG, 6’0 – 38th overall 2022. Traded for LAL 2024 2nd round pick the Grizzlies owned on draft night. Was given the biggest contract for 2nd rounder out of the draft only to be waived before the end of his 1st season. 
• Vince Williams Jr. – SG/SF, 6’4 – 47th overall 2022. Included by NOLA as part of the Valanciunas/Adams deal. Small victory for Memphis after trading up to select a player worse than Trey Murphy. 
• David Roddy – PF, 6’4 – 23rd overall 2023. Memphis traded De’Anthony Melton on draft day for this pick and Danny Green. 
• GG Jackson – PF, 6’9 – 45th overall 2023. Arrived as a future 2nd on draft night 2022 in the LaRavia trade. 

Analysis: 5 out of 8 draft picks for Memphis since 2020 were players measured 6’8 or taller. So far, Vince Williams (not one of the 6’8 guys) is the only player on this list with a respectable 3 point percentage. Ziaire, Santi, and Roddy all shoot under 33% from three for their career. Tillman barely even attempts threes and LaRavia seems close to out of the league altogether. GG Jackson has a good three point percentage but this is with a very limited sample size. It can be argued that Memphis are a bit too aggressive with moves on draft night lately. On two occasions they traded out of their originally owned spot just to pick a player worse than who was selected in their spot (Ziaire Williams/Trey Murphy, Jake LaRavia/Walker Kessler). 

Pending Free Agents

These players may or may not be back in Memphis next season: 

• Luke Kennard – SG – Club Option for 24/25 
• Xavier Tillman – PF/C – UFA
• GG Jackson – PF – RFA (2-way)
• Jacob Gilyard – PG – RFA (2-way)
• Scottie Pippen Jr – PG – RFA (2-way)

Analysis: Of these options, I most expect GG and Kennard to be back with the team next season.

The Rotation

I expect these to be some of the first players off the bench for Memphis next season to provide quality minutes:

• Vince Williams Jr – SG/SF, 6’4
• Luke Kennard – SG, 6’5
• Brandon Clarke – PF, 6’8
• Santi Aldama – PF/C, 6’11

-A few Memphis players deserve to be noted as depth bench options who could be called upon when the team faces a major injury, but may not play on a nightly basis:

• Ziaire Williams – SF, 6’9
• John Konchar – SG/SF, 6’5
• David Roddy – PF, 6’4
• GG Jackson – PF, 6’9
• Derrick Rose – PG, 6’3

Analysis: The key reserves are still missing what the starting five is missing which is a good sized wing that can space the floor and provide defense. Clarke is the right size but he is not a shooter. We’ve already covered that Santi isn’t a great shooter either. The shooting that is provided from the reserves comes from two guys below 6’6. A lot of the players in this section are expendable via trade. If it were me, I would only focus on keeping Kennard and Vince Williams. Santi can stay too purely due to lack of frontcourt depth. Personally, I like Konchar as well. The rest can be available in the right deal. Ziaire Williams and Roddy I would be most inclined to move. 

The Options

Memphis currently holds the 7th worst record in the NBA. Everyone noted in the starting five section earlier besides Jaren Jackson are currently out with injury. This should certainly help the Grizz nosedive into a tank. I doubt they could catch the Spurs, Hornets, Pistons or Wizards. However, I do think they can tank below the Blazers and Raptors for the 5th worst record. So it is safe to assume Memphis will pick somewhere between 1-7 unless the lottery gods do not look favorably upon their fortunes. Memphis should be looking for a combination of size, shooting and defense for their selection in the 2024 draft. With all of the above in mind, let’s look at some of the options that may fit what the Grizzlies are looking for. 

• Alexandre Sarr – PF/C, 7’1 – Perth: Memphis would need to get lucky with the lottery in order to land Sarr. I’m not sure how many blocks per game could happen between Sarr and JJJ but I know it would be a lot. However, Sarr does not have a great 3pt shot. 
• Zacharie Risacher – SF, 6’9 – JL Bourg:Tremendous 3pt shooter with good size. Doesn’t seem to offer much defensively. Not as sold on him as a top prospect as consensus. 
• Ron Holland – SF/PF, 6’8 – G League Ignite: Good scoring and size with active hands on defense but a bad 3pt shooter. Prone to turnovers and other low IQ plays. Team seems to have a lite version of Ron already in GG Jackson. 
• Matas Buzelis – SF, 6’11 – G League Ignite: Offers good scoring, rebounding and rim protection but also lacks in 3pt shooting. Far better basketball IQ than his Ignite teammate Holland. Moves well for his size.
• Cody Williams – SF, 6’8 – University of Colorado Boulder: Scoring, rebounding, defense and playmaking. That’s not all, he is shooting 52% from three with a true shooting of 67%. Perfect size for the position. Younger brother of OKC star Jalen Williams. 

The Choice

The clear choice for Memphis should be to draft Cody Williams. If I am in the Memphis front office I am attending or sending someone to attend every one of Cody’s games the remainder of the NCAA season. Cody Williams vs Jalen Williams in a West playoff matchup is a very real possibility in the near future if Memphis gets Cody. I’ve seen a few NBA comparisons for Cody, but the one I have seen appear more than once is Lamar Odom. I’ve also seen Cody in recent mock drafts listed anywhere between 1-12. It is very possible Cody plays his way out of the range Memphis is likely to pick at. For now, Memphis lines up directly with the range Cody is most often predicted to be picked at. 

Williams can easily be slotted into the starting lineup at the expense of Marcus Smart or can be one of the first players off the bench as a key reserve. A lineup of Morant, Smart, Bane, Cody Williams and Jaren Jackson can work at times to match opponents playing small. Williams currently is almost at the Triple 1 (1 3pt, 1 block, 1 steal per game) in the NCAA and I expect that to be a part of his fantasy game in the NBA. The only concern I have about Williams is he is shooting around 70% from the free throw line. Projections still have him around a 35% shooter from three in the NBA, which is better than many of the Grizzlies bench options. Check out this video on Cody Williams from one of my favorite sources to learn about incoming rookies, Hoop Intellect:

Conclusion

The remainder of this season for Memphis is a chance for many of the young guys on the roster to prove they deserve to be in the rotation next season. Especially for David Roddy and Ziaire Williams. They need to take better advantage of all of this playing time being handed to them. I will also be intrigued to watch if Memphis prefers to keep one of Santi Aldama or Brandon Clarke or even both. The two of Clarke and Santi on the floor together actually does make some sense. Also this is definitely the time to keep a very close eye on GG Jackson the remainder of the season as he could potentially be an in-house solution to provide size and shooting for Memphis. 

If Memphis is unable to land Williams, then I like Matas Buzelis as the 2nd best option for them in the range they are likely to pick at. Matas will likely be a better shooter than what he has shown so far for the Ignite. He also needs a bit more time to acclimate after recovering from injury. Instead of these constant draft night trades Memphis continues to make they should instead just remain on their tanking course and pick wherever they land in the lottery. It would be easy for Memphis to overreact to this season and try to do too much to fix the roster. If they are patient it will pay off.